2007: A busy Year for Hurricanes in the U.S.?

The awesome destructive force of Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, has re-awakened the world to what a powerful hurricane can do, in the wrong place at the wrong time. The year 2007 could produce more of the same, with increased hurricane activity forecasted for the Atlantic Ocean producing more hurricanes than normal, and with a higher strike probability on the U.S. coastline.

The Tropical Meteorology Project, at Colorado State University is the entity that produces our most reliable, and most widely used hurricane forecasts. Each year, for the past 24 years, Dr. William Gray and Doctorate Candidate Phil Klotzbach study worldwide weather trends, and past activity, and then apply sophisticated computer modeling to attempt to forecast what we can expect in the upcoming year. Their forecasts have historically been surprisingly accurate, given the difficult nature of the subject. What they tell us for 2007 should serve as a warning, far in advance of the actual need.

For example, during the last century, the probability of a major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) striking somewhere on the U.S. coastline in any particular year has been 52%; in 2007 that probability climbs to 64%.

Also, during the period 1950-2000, there were on average 5.9 hurricanes per year, in 2007 we can expect 7 hurricanes, an ominous increase.

During the same period of 1950-2000, there were on average 9.6 "named storms" (which are tropical storms and/or hurricanes), in 2007 we can expect 14.

Finally, the Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 is forecasted to be about 140 percent of the long-term average.

The above information, and much more, will be used by Federal, State and local governments to help anticipate their needs for 2007, so that they can respond adequately to the increased risks that are faced by all the States that border the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.

Individual citizens should also take precautions, as the hurricane season nears, to protect their lives and property. By remaining vigilant during the hurricane season (1 June to 30 November) and taking prudent action when a Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning is issued, citizens can do much to protect themselves and their loved ones from the type of destruction and loss that the victims of Hurricane Katrina suffered, and are still trying to fully recover from, today.

There are many ways to keep informed of hurricane activity; the author of this article has created a website (www.Hurricane-Tracking.us) that is designed to be of effective help in all aspects hurricane awareness: it provides complete and current worldwide hurricane tracking, weather radar, tracking maps, current hurricane watches and warnings, multimedia and much more, for all hurricanes and tropical storms. In addition it also provides an email notification service, to notify you by email when any hurricane watch or hurricane warning is issued, so you will never be caught off-guard.

As the hurricane season of 2007 draws near, and threatens to be very intense, we can at least take heed of the warning. If past history is any indication of future performance, our government agencies will be hard pressed to deal with a large-scale disaster. So, individually we should ensure that we are ready for whatever may come.